Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
